Speaker
Description
Nuclear trade analysis has effectively strengthened international safeguards for more than a decade. Supported by the IAEA Member States, nuclear trade analysis was a departmental response to the revelation of proliferation networks in the early 2000s. The collection, analysis and synthesis of trade-related information with information from open and other sources has diversified and enhanced the verification of completeness of States’ declarations, thus improving assurances of the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities.
The key trade analysis products in the context of safeguards State evaluation are assessments of nuclear-related trade flows, nuclear-related industrial infrastructure, IAEA Technical Cooperation, and ad hoc trade and procurement-related analysis. In 2017, ca 90 such reports were provided to safeguards State evaluation groups (SEGs), in addition to direct SEG trade updates.
Proliferation risks show no sign of decreasing in the future. Recent nuclear energy production projections point to a continuous increase, where even a low case scenario is ca 8 % increase over the next decade. The growth in legitimate nuclear-related trade will also increase the concerns of misuse, illicit trade and proliferation. Resilient proliferation networks are constantly adapting to avoid strengthened export controls and pose a continuous challenge for global non-proliferation. The paper describes the role of IAEA trade analysis in support of safeguards State evaluation, in addition to its sources of information and partnerships in countering non-traditional proliferation risks – by further diversifying and improving departmental trade analysis competence.
| Topics | CHA3 |
|---|---|
| Which "Key Question" does your Abstract address? | CHA3.1 |
| Which alternative "Key Question" does your Abstract address? (if any) | CHA3.3 |
